Social Classes and Mobility

Pre-Speech ~2M – 100k BCE

There were essentially no social classes. People would sabotage anyone getting too much power, and so hierarchically society stayed flat. The strongest didn't rule. Eventually, like chimpanzees, there were coalitions and alliances that began to emerge that created two ways to social power: 1. being Darwinism, and 2. being prestige (social skills, essentially).

Speech Emerges ~100k – 50k BCE

As speech emerged, prestige became an even more important part of social power and dynamics, but mobile hunter and gatherer communities stayed relatively flat hierarchically.

Symbolism Emerges ~50k – 12k BCE

Counting and art in the form of cave paintings and tally marks emerge, but societies are still egalitarian. Ganging up on anyone who's gaining too much power. Social classes are established by prestige, and attempts at dominance are punished.

Social Classes Emerge ~12k – 4000 BCE

Eventually the mobile hunters and gatherers found places that provided a storable surplus of food and water. They became sedentary and built more permanent homes and structures. They still hunted and gathered, but from a home base. In these places we see a simple 3-class social system emerge.

1. The family that owns the territory
2. Their homies who use the territory, but fend for themselves
3. War prisoners used as slaves

Social mobility was basically nonexistent since territory was passed through family.

Writing Emerges ~3200 BCE

Once the complexity of the storable surplus and the logistics required to feed a great nation put pressure on the civilization, we get what are called primary states. They were the first states where people could specialize in ways that did not produce sustenance. Writing emerges as a way of measuring, tracking, and calculating the logistics and storage of the surplus resources. (Mostly food.)

Full Class Systems Emerge ~3000 BCE onward

With the advent of writing, and civilization getting ever more complex, some people specialized in only scribing, being priests, officials, and leadership of these greater organizations.

There were typically 5 social classes:

1. Some kind of leader dude
2. The leader's officials
3. Merchants, and skilled people like craftsmen, warriors, etc.
4. Basic worker people
5. Slaves

This is where the challenge of social mobility begins. How can someone who is born with nothing end up doing well in middle age?

There are 3 paths:

1. Relationships
2. Skills
3. Assets

Basically, if you weren't born to a strong family, you make a relationship that can get you into training for 1 or 2, or you learn a skill.

Different takes on Social Mobility ~600 BCE – 500 CE

As civilization moved forward, the same 5 general social classes continued.

However, different places approached social mobility differently.

Expanded Social Mobility:

In the Mediterranean, Solon of Athens changed classes to be determined by wealth over birth. This was specific to free men, but still increased mobility.

In Rome, manumission (the legal act of freeing a slave) freed slaves into citizenship, and their children were full citizens.

In later Chinese dynasties, they created an entrance exam for government positions, making status and class associated with those positions earnable.

In Mesopotamia, they capped debt slavery at 3 years. After serving your time, you were free to get after it again.

Social Mobility Stayed Flat:

In Egypt: Things stayed pretty much the same. Spots in schools to learn high-class skills were given to people of high-birth. Everyone else imitated parents or people around them.

Early China: Things stayed pretty much the same. Spots in schools were given to people of high-birth.

Social Mobility was decreased:

In India, the caste system hardened. It was enforced by limiting contact between classes, specific jobs being assigned to certain classes, religious law ingraining it in the belief system, and marriage being limited to only within your caste.

In all of these places, social mobility was achieved through learning more high-value skills, relationships getting you access, and by being born into assets. (Including relationships.)

Rome ~300 BCE – 400 CE

Rome also improved mobility through manumission and military service.

Then comes the medieval ages ~500 – 1400 CE

Rome collapses, and with it literacy and mobility in that area, but other countries are opening the gates up for anyone of merit.

China, Middle East, West Africa.

In Europe, the status quo is turned backwards to feudalism. Social classes are decided by land, because land means income. Everyone else worked for those with land. Land was passed through families.

The main path of social mobility was the church, due to celibacy required, and interestingly that also meant they would be 'educated' due to the church's knowledge of Roman education.

Eventually, around the 1000s, towns arose again, and the phrase "town air makes free" (Stadtluft macht frei) became common. If a serf could make it in a town for a year, by law they were free. The urban middle class formed, the Bourgeoisie. Whereas in the countryside, things remained the same: feudalism.

An Aside — During this time, the Islamic states are balling tf out. Social mobility is way feasible because of religiously sponsored schooling, and they are crushing. West Africa similarly. China also has invented a state-run exam to let anyone from any background get the positions of officials in government. (This is gated by time and money to study.)

When the Black Death hit, it shook up and further finished off medieval serfdom and the church's hold on schools, allowing more options for mobility.

The Renaissance ~1400 – 1600 CE

Most people are still broke, but big ocean boats drop and a new merchant class grows.

The Enlightenment ~1680 – 1800

In reality, mobility remains with birth, although philosophically people are refuting Aristotle's argument that nature decides.

As Locke and others eventually take hold through the French Revolution and American Revolution, human rights are put into law. 'Everyone is equal at birth.' First changes in law that reflect mobility possibilities. In practice, it takes time to change. And later, civil rights revolutions.

Here we see the 5-class system taken down in much of the western world.

No longer is the class system: leader dude, officials, craftsmen and merchants, peasants, slaves.

In Haiti, the slaves overthrow their masters and create the first black-led republic.

Now it's capitalists, then middle class (managers, craftsmen depending on credentials and skills), then the basic workers (selling their time for money). This accelerates all the way into

The Industrial Revolution ~1760 – 1980 CE

So anyway, back to 1944, the GI Bill more than doubled college attendance. A kid born around this time in America had the greatest chance ever of out-earning his father before or since.

From 1940-1980, civil rights were finally awarded to all people in the US. The California college system was low-cost and high-quality; federal aid helped lower class families with money for school.

The class system was in 4 parts: a small upper class, upper middle class of managers and professionals, huge middle class with even factory workers making enough to be in the middle class, and a small poor minority.

Elsewhere, Western Europe built out social safety nets and programs, Asia had state-sponsored education, and South Korea went from one of the poorest countries to one of the richest in about 50 years (1950-2000).

1980-2020s ~1980 – now

However, for social mobility, 1980 in the U.S. is when things began to change from this boom.

What happened?

Manufacturing was automated. College costs rose. Degree inflation lowered the value of any degree (and the Information Age even more so). K-12 funding was tied to property taxes, making schools unequal (rich neighborhoods spend 2-3x per student). And mating practices further hardened this.

According to Raj Chetty's Harvard Study:

A child born in the bottom 20% of U.S. income has about a 7.5% chance of reaching the top 20%. In Denmark, 12%. In Canada, 13.5%.

Of children born in 1940, 90% earned more than their parents. Of those born in 1980, only 50%.

Today

A child born poor in Canada or Denmark has a better statistical chance at the 'American Dream' and out-earning their parents. In fact, a child born poor today in the US has the same likelihood of staying poor as in 1900.

Where you grow up matters enormously. Neighborhoods within the same city can differ in mobility outcomes by factors of 3 or 4.

The class system has flattened. Some economists describe the U.S. now as a two-track society.

Upper-middle class and above, top 20-30%, college-educated, professional, often dual-income, concentrated in expensive metros, kids go to college, life expectancy climbing.

Working and lower class, bottom 50-70%, increasingly non-college, increasingly precarious, declining marriage and employment rates, life expectancy falling in some regions, kids less likely to surpass parents.

In Europe, mobility is generally higher but also stalling, same with China though their boom happened later.

So why is social mobility falling in the U.S.?

Marriages are working less, networks are more closed, places that have high-paying jobs are less accessible, and the cost of a degree to get a high-paying job is higher than ever.

Statistically, about two-thirds of someone's economic outcome is determined by factors outside their control. The remaining third, which is real, runs through the three paths I named at the start of this essay. Skills (the right credential or trade). Relationships (networks, marriage). Assets (savings, eventually ownership). Social classes are sorted by financial success mostly.

The trends for Millennials and Gen Z are trending lower for social mobility.

Correlated most to social mobility:

1. Family status
2. Zipcode
3. School
4. Health
5. Child regulation and control of self

Note: Women's mobility has significantly improved, as well as races other than White European descent people generally. Most of this is a function of rights rather than an improvement of infrastructure.